Doing the Math for You: The EPL Battles At The Top (And, Of Course, The Bottom) Of The Table

If you like math as much as you like the EPL, this is clearly the best time of year for you. Though we’re not as down to the wire as we were last year with the races for the top and bottom spots — after a weekend in which QPR and Reading relegated each other in predictably miserable 0-0 fashion — there’s a wee bit of drama headed into the final four weeks. The race for the third through fifth spots are made a little more interesting by Chelsea and Spurs playing each other May 8, as well as Chelsea’s tough schedule including Europa League games, and the Wigla battle for 17th including the final game of the season between Wigan and Villa, which could mean nothing or could be an awesome drama fest. Here’s some math, done for you, because we care.

The Chammmmmmmpions Race

Chelsea (currently third)
Games Remaining: 4
Points: 65
Max Points Possible: 77
Max Points Possible if they tie Spurs May 8: 75
GD: 33
Left to Play: at Man U, Spurs, at Villa, at Everton
Things to keep in mind: Man U doesn’t have much to play for now that the league’s wrapped up and the all-time points record isn’t possible, the game vs. Spurs will be a war, Villa will be likely scrapping to avoid relegation, Everton might have a shot at fifth at that point, which looks the only route to the Europa league.

Arsenal (currently fourth)
Games Remaining: 3
Points: 64
Max Points Possible: 73
GD: 30
Left to Play: at QPR, Wigan, at Newcastle
Things to keep in mind: Giroud’s gone for another two weeks because of the red card, QPR will be pretty deflated (okay, MORE SO), and Wigan and Newcastle will be scrapping to avoid relegation, and Wigan did tie Spurs this past weekend (though the two goals they gave up were comical). (Newcastle just lost 6-0 to Liverpool. They seem officially awful.)

Spurs (currently fifth)
Games Remaining: 4
Points: 62
Max Points Possible: 74
Max Points Possible if they tie Spurs May 8: 72
GD: 17
Left to Play: Southampton, at Chelsea, at Stoke, Sunderland
Things to keep in mind: Southampton’s been a tough out for top teams, Chelsea has played well of late (though, still, Torres + Benitez), Stoke is Stoke, and Sunderland has new fascist inspiration which will probably keep them out of the drop zone.

If everyone wins out (with the exception of Spurs beating Chelsea): Spurs 74, Chelsea 74, Arsenal 73
If everyone wins out (with the exception of Chelsea beating Spurs): Chelsea 77, Arsenal 73, Spurs 71
If everyone wins out (with the exception of a Spurs-Chelsea tie): Chelsea 75, Arsenal 73, Spurs 72

(Also, no one cares much, but Man City needs 7 points in its final four games to clinch 2nd, and their final two are at Reading and Norwich. At Swansea and hosting West Brom are the two semi-tests. And just for fun, Everton’s sitting at 59 points with three games left, max of 68 possible, against Liverpool, West Ham, and Chelsea. Liverpool’s at 54 points with three games left, so we’ll introduce them into the conversation should the Black Plague sweep London in the next few weeks.

The Relegation Battle

Wigan (currently 18th)
Games Remaining: 4
Points: 32
Max Points Possible: 44
GD: -23
Left to Play: at West Brom, Swansea, at Arsenal, Villa
Things to keep in mind: This is not a particularly easy stretch for Wigan, Figueroa’s hurt, they’ve got an FA Cup final in the mix here (not as WTF as Bradford vs. Swansea was, but close), and Arsenal will be gunning (rim shot) for a CL spot. So it could come to the match with Villa and Wigan’s current 4-goal GD advantage.

Aston Villa (currently 17th)
Games Remaining: 4
Points: 34
Max Points Possible: 46
GD: -27
Left to Play: Sunderland, at Norwich, Chelsea, at Wigan
Things to keep in mind: Winning today against the fascists would keep Villa in control of their own destiny; a loss would allow Wigan to grab the steering wheel. Villa have a goal differential to work on in the coming weeks. Though giving up three goals to RVP in 32 minutes last week was, well, bad, Benteke and Weimann continue to look dangerous and capable of multi-goal games. (That defense, though.)

Newcastle (currently 16th)
Games Remaining: 3
Points: 37
Max Points Possible: 46
GD: -23
Left to Play: at West Ham, at QPR, Arsenal
Things to keep in mind: Europe last year, and rim of the drop zone this year, thanks to an epic 0-6 bed-crapping against a Liverpool side that just lost Suarez to a 10-game ban. Alan Pardew, we applaud you. Could a 0-0 draw against QPR be enough to save Newcastle?

(If Sunderland lose today, they’re at 37 points with three games left, just like Newcastle, but with a much-better GD position of -7. Everyone else, starting with lackluster Norwich, look safe, though some look a lamer brand of safe than others.)

(Monday afternoon update: Are you kidding me? Villa wins 6-1, pulls ahead of Wigan and Newcastle in goal differential, goes up to 16th in the table … and this is in a game where Sessegnon gets red-carded out of the rest of the season. So, all of a sudden, the Tyneside teams are in more dire straits than Villa — the Toons are in 17th, and Sunderland’s in 15th but they don’t have their top two goalscorers. Nice win, Villa.)

Daydrinker’s Five: Biting Edition

So, what will the pundits be talking about this weekend, other than the Suarez Snack of Shame? Wynalda might not talk about anything else, and Darke and Macca spent a lot of the ESPN2 pre-game discussing a Liverpool-less future for Sir Bites-A-Lot, but here are some of the other things they could/should talk about.

Arsenal’s championship guard for United. With the league wrapped up well before the last day of the season (unlike last year’s wild and eminently more watchable ride), we’ll get the dubious tradition of the non-title-winning team clapping for the league champs. In this case, it’s watching RVP beaming about a league trophy, at the Emirates, the first year after leaving the Emirates. As an Arsenal fan, how does it feel? It feels like your boss gave the jerk in Sales with the perfect hair a bunch of really good leads, he went into Always Be Closing Mode, and you have to pretend to like him as you congratulate him for getting Employee of the Month as you fantasize about keying his car. The championship guard, as a tradition, blows.

Wigla. From now until their last game of the season, we’re likely to talk about Wigan and Villa together as they jockey for 17th and 18th place. Except, of course, when we talk about Wigan’s improbable journey to the FA Cup finals, where we can thank the Latics for blocking Millwall’s path to the FA Cup final.

The Relegation Six-Pointer that could have been. QPR plays Reading in a game that doesn’t have the drama it could have had in the relegation fight, simply because both teams are just that horribly and resolutely in the drop zone. There aren’t even many players worth poaching, unless you’re a fan of overpaid defenders pried from Anzhi Makhachkala.

Playing for second place. Regardless of how Man City does against West Ham this morning, expect contrasts to be drawn between the efficiently managed and quietly dominant United, and the boatload-of-strikers dysfunctional fantasy team that is City. The first half has been typical City — Aguero and Yaya Toure are showing up, Tevez is a black hole, Gareth Barry is getting trucked, Nasri is pouting, and David Silva’s doing a lot of rolling around and holding body parts.

The race for third (and fourth). Assuming City doesn’t entirely tank — and surely, none of us at FourFiveTwo are rooting for that — we’ll be looking at the next four teams in the table and projecting how they’ll finish. Arsenal’s toughest match remaining this season will be tomorrow’s RVP Lovefest (note to Sir Alex: This would be a great game to see what kind of striker you have in Welbeck), Spurs play the FA Cup Finalist half of Wigla (not their toughest game), Zorres and company host Swansea at Stamford Bridge, and Everton hosts Fulham, a game for which we have nothing witty to say, because it’s Everton hosting Fulham.

Indonesian League Player Hooks Ref.

Pieter Rumaropen gets pretty aggressive (in a cowardly way, seeing as though he came up from behind) on a referee after a penalty decision that I’m guessing, he didn’t like very much.

What kills me is that Rumaropen wasn’t even the player that gave up the penalty.

Now I’ve seen some dodgy penalty calls in my day, but that’s a pretty outrageous reaction. That’s not even close to a “punch a ref in the face” call.

Rumaropen has been given a life ban.

AM 452: Horsey Edition

We are back again with another episode of AM 452. This week I’m joined by Greg, Keith, Phil, and Lorber to discuss the fun world of soccer. We cover most of the results from the past weekend, and tip our hats to Manchester United. Aston Villa and relegation-watch is in full force, as is a bit of a rant about Everton’s stupidity against Sunderland. Of course we couldn’t help but get a few digs in at Suarez and Chelsea, as well as talking about the upcoming weeks. Somehow we also discuss mascots and the difference between English and American ones.

As always you can listen to us below or search for us on iTunes by searching AM 452.